Analysis: what the stats tell us
Arsenal travel to the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium as narrow favourites on recent form, having averaged 5.8 shots on target per UCL game in 2024/25 to Napoli's 4.2. Saka (22 shots on target in 10 appearances) and Havertz (5 goals) are the sharpest attacking threats. Napoli's Lukaku brings aerial danger and drew 18 fouls per 90 in Serie A β corner and card opportunities exist on both sides. Rice's 4 UCL bookings make him the standout card market candidate; Saka's corner delivery makes Arsenal the value side in the corners market. Napoli last met Arsenal in the 2013/14 UCL group stage β that context matters for neither side's current form.
Corners: Arsenal most corners β 5.9 per UCL game vs Napoli's 4.6.
Cards: Rice most bookable β 4 UCL yellows in 10 appearances, 22 fouls.
Result lean: Arsenal slight edge β away form and shot volume advantage, but Maradona Stadium atmosphere makes this finely balanced.
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