Pronósticos fútbol hoyPronósticos de la semana 38/2026

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Elche are 19th with just 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 games, and are still without a win this season, having only just snapped a losing run with a 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao. Real Madrid sit 2nd with 12 points from 5 and have lost only to Real Betis domestically, backed by a front line of Bellingham, Vinícius and Mbappé. Expect Mourinho to rotate somewhat with the Madrid derby looming, but the gap in quality is still large.

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Fulham have lost all three of their Premier League openers under new manager Álvaro Arbeloa, conceding seven goals, and their only competitive win this season came against fourth-tier AFC Wimbledon in the previous round. Both sides are expected to rotate heavily, which adds uncertainty, but Fulham's underlying defensive fragility is the clearer signal here.

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Arsenal go into this on six straight wins to start the season, while Ipswich have won 2 of their opening 4 in the Championship. Arteta has flagged squad rotation (Saliba and Mosquera already out), but even a weakened Arsenal side carries far more attacking quality than an Ipswich team that needed a 3-2 comeback to beat Crystal Palace last time out.

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Both sides go into this having just drawn 0-0 in the league (Liverpool v Fulham, Tottenham v Everton), and Tottenham are yet to score a league goal all season. Both managers have also flagged heavy squad rotation for this Carabao Cup tie, which tends to disrupt attacking cohesion on both sides.

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Brentford are unbeaten in four Premier League games and thrashed Birmingham 6-1 in the previous cup round, giving them a big class advantage. Reading are dangerous at home in League One (11 home goals, more than any rival, and 8 first-half goals in 6 games) but just lost 2-1 at Cambridge after three straight wins, so this is closer than the gulf in divisions suggests but still favours the visitors.

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Willem II are still winless this season (2 points from 5, form L-L-D-L-D) and have conceded first in five of the last six meetings with Ajax, who have won five straight in this fixture. Ajax's home form has dipped recently (2 points from a possible 15), but the gap in quality and h2h record still favours the hosts.

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Fiorentina won 4-2 at Venezia in new coach Paolo Vanoli's first game back, with Franco Mastantuono scoring a hat-trick, and have only one long-term absentee. Pisa are reeling from a 4-1 home defeat to Virtus Entella and have won just once in four, with midfielder Mehdi Leris facing a possible suspension after a red card in that game.

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Genoa have already conceded seven goals in their first three Serie A games and are expected to rotate heavily, while Südtirol arrive on a strong run (3W 2D from 5) and are punching above their weight for a second-tier side. Genoa should still have enough going forward to score too, given the pressure on manager De Rossi to get a positive result.

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Alavés have won three straight at home (3-0 v Getafe, 1-0 v Villarreal, 5-2 v Osasuna) and are unbeaten in seven straight home meetings with Valencia, keeping clean sheets in the last three. Valencia are in crisis with 1 point from 5, four straight defeats, and just one goal scored all season — they also just sacked manager Carlos Corberán, with Óscar Sánchez in interim charge.

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Rayo are 16th and reeling from a 4-1 thrashing at Real Madrid, with La Liga's worst defence (14 conceded in 5) and several first-team absences. Espanyol are 7th, in form after a 2-0 win last time out, with the division's second-best defensive record (5 conceded in 5) and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides.

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Barcelona are top with a perfect 5W-0D-0L record (15 pts), averaging 4.2 goals per game and having scored 21 while conceding just 4. Racing Santander are 10th with 2W-1D-2L, coming off a 2-1 home win over Alavés but facing a huge step up in class at Camp Nou.

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Sparta hold a perfect historical record against Ararat-Armenia and carry more continental pedigree, with Josimar Alcocer in red-hot form (4 goals in his last 6 appearances). It's not one-sided — Sparta have lost 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and go into this without suspended defender Adam Sevinsky — but Ararat's home form (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in their last 6) doesn't suggest an upset is likely.

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Both sides are short on goals right now: Omonia have drawn a blank in three of their last four games and conceded only twice in that span, while Celta are winless through their first six La Liga matches and have failed to score more than once in any of them. Neither side looks capable of a high-scoring afternoon in Nicosia.

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Milan are unbeaten in 4 Serie A games (2W 2D) and have scored 11 while conceding 6 across their last five. Benfica are red-hot with 5 straight wins and 7 unbeaten across all competitions, scoring 15 and conceding only 3 in that span, with Prestianni scoring in three straight games. Both sides' recent matches lean heavily toward goals at both ends (Milan 4/5 over 2.5 and BTTS in 4/5; Benfica over 2.5 in all 5 recent games).

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Leverkusen have scored at least twice in every game across their last four, while Celje have lost 4 of their last 5 across all competitions and are now managerless after Vitor Campelos departed just days before this trip to the BayArena.

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Hapoel have conceded 7 goals across their last 3 matches, including a 4-1 home defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv, and are further weakened by the suspension of Djibril Diop and injuries to forward Igor Zlatanovic and others. Dinamo arrive in healthier form and with more squad depth, and Hapoel are also playing this fixture away from home in Bucharest rather than at their own ground.

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Olympiacos are without El Kaabi (broken cheekbone), Joel Roca (shoulder) and suspended Konstantinos Fortounis, weakening a defence that just lost 1-0 to OFI Crete, while Jagiellonia have shown they can score against strong opposition in Europa League qualifying (past Rangers) even amid inconsistent domestic form.

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Anderlecht's last two home European games have each produced three goals, and striker Danylo Sikan has scored 5 goals in 6 Europa League appearances. Lyon are unbeaten in three, including a 2-2 draw with PSG, and have scored in every one of their last five matches even with winger Julien Duranville sidelined.

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Rennes have failed to keep a clean sheet through their unbeaten start to the season despite the results, and Sturm Graz still have Otar Kiteishvili (15 league goals last season) to lean on at home even while missing Leon Grgic and Emran Soglo to injury.

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AZ have scored 17 goals in 6 Eredivisie matches but have conceded 5 in their last 3, and Sunderland have scored in every one of their 4 competitive matches this season, albeit only once each time. AZ's prolific, increasingly leaky attack against a Sunderland side that consistently finds the net points to goals at both ends.

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Juventus have won 4 of their last 6 European fixtures at home in the Allianz Stadium, while NEC are playing just their second-ever match against Italian opposition in European competition — a significant step up in quality for their debut continental campaign.

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Real Betis sit 3rd with 12 points from 5 and have won both home league games so far without conceding, on a run of 5 wins from their last 6 in all competitions including victories over Real Madrid and Villarreal. Getafe are 14th with just 5 points, have scored only 3 league goals all season, and are still waiting for their first away league goal — a tough combination away at a Betis side in this kind of form.

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Both sides are out of form — Málaga are 17th with just 3 points and have scored only twice in 5 games, while Villarreal have lost 4 straight in all competitions including a Champions League defeat to Dortmund. But Málaga's attack has been the more toothless of the two, and Villarreal are overdue a result against a side this blunt in front of goal.

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Levski have kept clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 home European matches and are unbeaten in 9 of their opening domestic games, conceding just 4 goals. Salzburg are unbeaten in 12 matches this season but have lost their last 9 away games specifically in the Europa League — a striking weakness that lines up with Levski's defensive solidity at home.

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OFI have won all 4 home games this season without conceding and go into this on 4 straight clean sheets, but the step up in opposition quality is real — Hoffenheim have scored at least twice in every competitive match this season, including braces from Adam Hlozek, and should be the side to finally get past OFI's back line.

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Plzeň scored 5 in a stunning qualifying comeback against Crvena Zvezda and carry 14 goals in 7 domestic matches, but their defensive transitions have been shaky. Union SG have been ruthless recently — a 5-0 win over Lommel and a 3-2 thriller against Charleroi, averaging over 2 goals a match — both sides' attacking form points to goals at both ends.

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Palace, making their Europa League debut after winning the Conference League, have lost their first two league games at Selhurst Park under new boss Pierre Sage — an inconsistent home run. Lech won 5 of their first 7 league matches and scored 7 unanswered against Thun in qualifying, with Wålemark and Ishak a proven European goal threat.

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Celtic have won all 6 league matches this season and are unbeaten at home, with 8 of their last 9 games going over 2.5 goals. Ferencváros are unbeaten in 11 straight and have scored first in 7 consecutive matches. Both sides have scored in all 3 previous meetings between these clubs, and both attacks are firing.

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Beşiktaş are 2nd in the Süper Lig, have won 9 of their last 11 matches, and are on a run of 6 straight home wins including 5 clean sheets. Marseille have lost 3 straight in Ligue 1 under new manager Bruno Genesio and sit 13th, just above the relegation play-off spot — a stark form gap heading into Istanbul.

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Both sides are defensively fragile right now: Real Sociedad have lost 3 of 6 league games and just 1 win in their last 7 at home, including a 3-0 home defeat to Atlético. Bournemouth are winless in the league under new boss Marco Rose and have repeatedly conceded late in games. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of the last 10 matches involving either side.

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City and Norwich have met 72 times, with City winning 39; Norwich haven't won at the Etihad since 2013 and have lost their last three meetings 14-0 on aggregate without scoring. Norwich sit mid-table in the Championship with 3 wins from 7 — a huge gap in class for a home Premier League side even accounting for possible squad rotation.

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Lillestrøm come into their Europa League opener on a 3-match winning run and sit 5th domestically, with prior European qualifying experience. Torreense, appearing in UEFA competition for the first time ever after a shock Portuguese Cup win over Sporting, have won just 1 of their last 6 and play their domestic football in Portugal's second tier — a significant step up.

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Both sides' recent matches have produced goals at both ends. Brentford are unbeaten in four (1 win, 3 draws) including a 3-0 win over Tottenham, but their defence is largely untested. Chelsea have scored in every game — 3-2 at Fulham, 4-3 over Brighton — but also conceded in each, including a 2-1 loss at Arsenal.

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Arsenal are unbeaten and have not been beaten in any of their four league games this season (12 points), including a 2-1 win over Chelsea and a 1-0 away win at Aston Villa — their defence has not been breached. Brighton go into the game with three injury doubts (Rutter, Azeez, Svoboda) that thin their attacking options.

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Both sides have shown they can go without scoring: Hull drew 0-0 with Aston Villa, and Newcastle are dealing with striker absences. Newcastle are unbeaten (5 points from 3) but have drawn twice 2-2; Hull are also unbeaten and impressively beat Manchester United 2-0 at home.

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Forest just ground out a scoreless draw with Tottenham even with defensive absences, underlining how hard they are to break down. Coventry haven't scored in three matches and carry a -10 goal difference from four games — the attacking output simply isn't there.

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City have won all four league games with a +6 goal difference, including a 4-1 win at Crystal Palace, and should dominate possession at home. Sunderland have managed just 4 points from 4 and have offered little end product away from home (-2 goal difference on the road).

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Fulham have lost their last three but have still scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 home games — the defence is leaky at both ends. United are inconsistent (4 points from 4) but hit 5 goals past Ipswich last time out, led by Bruno Fernandes.

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Leeds have shown defensive control (W D D in their last 3) without needing high-scoring games. Palace have lost three of four and are without both Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, their two main attacking threats — a -5 goal difference reflects the drop-off.

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Bournemouth's last three games have finished 2-2, 1-1 and 2-1 — goals at both ends every time. Liverpool have drawn 2-2 in two of their last three, a similar open pattern, even though they sit well above Bournemouth in form (7th vs 15th).

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Everton have started well (4 points from 2, beat Palace 2-0 then drew at Bournemouth) and average 5.2 corners per game at home, driven by Calvert-Lewin's aerial threat from wide deliveries. Ipswich are coming off a 2-5 home defeat to Manchester United after an opening win over Sunderland.

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Le Classique at the Vélodrome. PSG are unbeaten through 2 games and have Ligue 1's best attack and defence (96 scored, 28 conceded last season) led by Dembélé (22 goals, 72 shots on target). Marseille are also unbeaten at home but the quality gap is real — the Vélodrome atmosphere is the main thing working against PSG here.

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El Derbi Madrileño at the Metropolitano. Real Madrid have won or fought back to win both games so far, led by Mbappé (32 goals, 88 shots on target last season) and Bellingham. Atlético's defensive resilience at home makes this only a slight edge, not a one-sided pick.

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Inter are the clear quality favourites at a packed Olimpico, led by Lautaro Martínez (28 goals, 82 shots on target last season) and unbeaten through 2 games. Roma have Dybala for a home attacking spark, but Inter's defensive record (34 conceded vs Roma's 58) is the deciding factor — a slight edge, not a rout.